Experts See Divergent Futures for Boeing's Two Flying Lasers

Both projects also cleared major technical hurdles in June,with ABL successfully targeting a missile (pdf) in flight, and ATL firing itsfull-power laser at a ground target for the first time. And yet, the laserplanes are on very different flight paths, as ABL weathers its harshestcriticism yet, while its younger sibling slides quietly toward further testing.After a holiday weekend where North Korea's"intercontinental" ballistic missiles failed to reach Japan, never mind Hawaii, PM examines whether the ABL wouldever be able to stop such attacks, and alternate futures for Americanbattlefield lasers.

Star Wars Reborn: The Airborne Laser

Although rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated,the embattled, multibillion-dollar Airborne Laser is fighting for its life. Themost powerful battlefield laser in development, and one of the most ambitiousweapon systems to date, the Airborne Laser is designed to prove that amegawatt-class chemical laser mounted on a large aircraft (in this case, a 747)can shoot down a long-range ballistic missile before it escapes the atmosphere.Critics have long derided every aspect of the project, from its cost overrunsto the limited scope and Hollywood overtonesof its proposed mission. What nation would be reckless enough to launch amissile at the United States,and foolish enough to telegraph the blow, providing the advance warning necessaryto deploy a laser-armed 747?

The answer, it seems, is North Korea, which threatened to fire intercontinentalballistic missiles at Hawaiithis past holiday weekend. Analysts dismissed the move as a clumsy new phase inthe dictatorship's ongoing game of brinksmanship, and the volley of missilesthat slipped into the waters between North Koreaand Japan on July 4th didlittle to back up Pyongyang'sbluster.

In theory, this weekend's potential attack was preciselywhat ABL was built for, to act as the first line of defense against an imminentstrike from a rogue nation. The Pentagon deployed missile-defense assets to Hawaii, including amissile-tracking X-band radar array and antimissile batteries. And ground-basedinterceptors in silos in Alaskastood ready to boost into space for an orbital duel. Still, wouldn't a flyinglaser turret be a great addition to the team?

Maybe not. Speaking to the House Appropriations Committee inMay, Defense Secretary Gates expressed doubts about ABL's utility in any realisticscenario. "I don't know anybody at the Department of Defense ... whothinks that this program should, or would, ever be operationally deployed. Thereality is that you would need a laser something like 20 to 30 times morepowerful than the chemical laser in the plane right now to be able to get anydistance from the launch site to fire," Gates said. "So, right nowthe ABL would have to orbit inside the borders of Iran in order to be able to try anduse its laser to shoot down that missile in the boost phase." He addedthat the system will eventually be tested at a range of 85 miles.

Whether ABL has the power and accuracy to down a boostingmissile, and even if it had been ready to be deployed this weekend, itsoperational range would force it to fly well within North Korean airspace."If you have to get that close, you might as well just invade by air withF-15s and F-16s and blow it up on the ground," says Philip Coyle, a senioradviser to the Center for Defense Information. The locations of these roguemissiles isn't exactly a mystery. "So far, both North Korea and Iranhave launched missiles out in the open, after weeks of preparation. Some daythey could hide them, put them in underground silos, but we're nowhere nearthat point yet," Coyle says.

Boeing conducted its most ambitious ABL flight tests yet onJune 6th and 13th, where the ABL locked onto missiles launched from the coastof Californiawith a low-power beam. But such a test may not be enough—the pressure toperform has never been greater. In addition to questioning the program'sfeasibility, Gates has canceled plans to build a second ABL. Even if the systempasses its biggest hurdle, a live-fire missile shootdown scheduled for thisfall, there's no guarantee that ABL won't be shelved, its research andcomponents cannibalized by a host of more manageable directed-energy projects.

The Laser Machine Gun: Advanced Tactical Laser

The ABL isn't the only laser plane in the hangar. TheAdvanced Tactical Laser (ATL) is similar to ABL, but its kilowatt-classchemical laser is significantly smaller, designed to hit targets at"tactical ranges." Boeing won't release specifics, but in a recenttest at the White Sands Missile Range, ATL hit a targetfrom 9 miles away, or roughly a tenth of the planned test range for ABLmentioned by Gates.

The ATL's intended targets are less ambitious, too.According to a Boeing statement, "ATL is designed to engage tacticaltargets, such as vehicles, communications infrastructures and/orfacilities." The ATL's goal is a new kind of ultra-precise strike, onethat reduces the collateral damage and friendly fire caused by conventionalmunitions. Although the system is currently being tested on C-130 militaryaircraft, Boeing claims that it "has studied a wide range of platforms,including rotorcraft, as potential hosts for an ATL-type system."

While ABL essentially fills an entire jumbo jet withbeam-control optics and chemical fuel, turning the plane into a flying lasercannon, ATL is intended to be simply another weapon system, one potentiallysuitable for a number of aircraft.

In many ways, ATL represents the larger trend in battlefieldlasers, toward compact, less powerful systems that fill the gaps left bymissiles, bombs and other conventional weapons. Instead of requiring a single,obscure scenario to justify its existence, such as a publicly announced roguemissile launch, tactical lasers could be deployed for many potential missions."The ATL is basically going to be filling the role of a machine gun,"says Coyle. "By definition, it is a close-range system. They're talkingabout using it the way you would use a helicopter gunship, or some othertactical airborne battlefield system. And so, presumably you're already in thearea where you're going to fight anyway, with soldiers on the ground."ATL, then, could serve as a kind of airborne sniper, picking off relativelyunarmored targets, particularly ones that are in close proximity to friendlytroops or civilians. "What remains to be seen is whether it will havegreater effectiveness than a machine gun," Coyle says.

Boeing hasn't announced specific upcoming tests for ATL,stating that "the Air Force plans to conduct an extended user evaluationto evaluate operational effectiveness against an extended target set." Itcould be years before ATL or any other tactical lasers prove their utility, butthere's another reason Boeing's shorter-range laser plane is gliding along,relatively unnoticed, while ABL continues to draw fire from critics andPentagon brass alike—ATL is valued at some $200 million, a veritable petproject by defense standards, and a fraction of the estimated $5 billion totalbudget for ABL. Even Mike Rinn, Boeing's program manager for ABL, seems tounderstand that his laser's biggest problem might be the scale and scope of itsmission. "Will there be a future ABL mission? I'm convinced there will be.Will it look like the current one? Maybe not," he says. Rinn is eager toget past the much-hyped long-range missile shootdown, and move on to studiesand possible flight tests pitting ABL against smaller targets, such as aircraftand surface-to-air missiles. With a half-dozen or more tactical lasers indevelopment, there's little question that ATL, or something like it, willeventually be deployed. For ABL, survival could mean escaping the high-stakes,highly politicized arena of ballistic missile defense, and proving that thereare other jobs out there for the world's most powerful battlefield laser.